In a twist that surprised many, voters today are giving higher marks to Donald Trump’s presidency and policies than Joe Biden’s. Many recall Trump’s time in office favorably – especially the economy, and rate it better than current conditions.
This showcases a general phenomenon called retrospective approval. People view past presidents through rose-tinted glasses, assessing their tenure with a newfound appreciation and recognizing achievements and qualities that were overlooked during their time in office.
Many thought Biden would benefit from people’s memories of the Trump presidency. To this point, the data suggests the opposite.
Trump presidency and policies
In the latest CBS News Poll, 46 percent of registered voters rated Trump’s presidency as excellent or good compared to 33 percent for Biden’s presidency. In addition, 65 percent recall the economy as good under Trump but only 38 percent rate the economy as good today.
In a New York Times/Sienna College survey, 40 percent felt that Trump’s policies had helped them personally. Only 18 percent felt the same way about Biden’s policies.
Nearly every demographic group felt more favorable toward Trump’s policies than Biden’s (see Table).
| Presidents | Women | Blacks | Hispanic | White college degree | White no college | Ind |
| Trump’s policies helped them personally | 39% | 26 | 37 | 34 | 49 | 36 |
| Biden’s policies helped them personally | 18 | 17 | 15 | 28 | 14 | 12 |
These numbers are remarkable considering Trump’s approval rating plummeted to a mere 34 percent before leaving office – the worst mark of his presidency. Post-election, Trump’s approval dropped over 10 points due to his refusal to concede the election, the Jan. 6 riots, a surge in COVID-19 cases, and a second impeachment.
Retrospective approval of presidents
Gallup periodically asks Americans,
“From what you have heard, or remember about some of our past presidents, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way each of the following handled their job as president.”
Notice that 7 of the 9 presidents were rated higher after leaving office than they were while in office. Trump’s abysmal 34 percent approval during his last days as president now stands at 46 percent.
| President | Last approval as president (%) | First retrospective approval | Year first retrospective approval | Change % points |
| John F Kennedy | 58 | 84 | 1990 | + 26 |
| Richard Nixon | 24 | 32 | 1990 | + 8 |
| Jimmy Carter | 34 | 45 | 1990 | + 11 |
| Ronald Reagan | 63 | 54 | 1990 | – 9 |
| George H.W. Bush | 56 | 58 | 1993 | + 2 |
| Bill Clinton | 66 | 51 | 2002 | – 15 |
| George W. Bush | 34 | 47 | 2010 | + 13 |
| Barack Obama | 59 | 63 | 2018 | + 4 |
| Donald Trump | 34 | 46 | 2023 | + 12 |
That 12-point improvement takes on added significance due to his campaign for a second, non-consecutive term. Undoubtedly favorable retrospective evaluations help Trump’s current efforts to convince Americas that he did a good job as president and his presidency was better than Joe Biden’s.
All presidents enjoy higher retrospective ratings as the years go by. For example, George W Bush’s first retrospective approval rating in 2010 was 47 percent. Thirteen years later, in 2023, his retrospective approval was 57 percent. Similarly, Ronald Reagan’s first retrospective approval was 54 percent in 1990, and climbed to 69 percent in 2023.
Bottom line
A significant percentage of the electorate appears nostalgic about the Trump presidency. They believe his presidency was better than Joe Biden’s, his policies helped them personally, and his economy was better than today’s.
Ironically, in 2020, it was Joe Biden that benefited by comparison. He often reminded voters, “Don’t compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative.”
Four years later, it appears Trump may be benefiting from a similar contrast.
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