In 2020, 18-29 year olds represented 17% of the electorate. Sixty percent of them voted for Joe Biden while 36% voted for Trump. The 24-point margin undoubtedly helped Biden secure victory.
Now, 4 years later, initial poll results paint a somewhat different picture.
First, among likely 18-29 year old voters, Biden’ support roughly matches 2020. Fifty-six percent support Biden and 37% Trump. A 19-point advantage.
Second, when the poll question includes independent and third-party candidates – Robert F Kennedy, Cornel West, and Jill Stein – Biden’s margin drops to 13 percent (43% to 30%). That’s an 11-point drop from the 2020 margin.
Finally, the advantage that Democrats enjoyed among young men is fading. Currently Biden’s lead among 18-29 men is +6. At this stage in the 2020 campaign, Biden’s lead among young men was +26.
Why?
In 2020, 42% of young men identified as Democrats and 20% Republicans. A +22 point Democrat advantage. Today, that advantage stands at +3 (32% Democrats and 29% Republicans – the percentage of Independent was unchanged).
However, there are changes among young women. In 2020, 43% identified as Democrats, and 23% as Republicans. A +20 margin favoring Democrats. Today the margin is +26.
Untangling the implications of these changes must await election day.
However, this much is clear:
- Including independent and third-party candidates shrinks Biden’s lead over Trump.
- During Biden’s term, young men increasingly drifted toward Republicans while young women toward Democrats. The shifts do not offset. Republicans are gaining more among men than Democrats are among women.
- In 2020, Biden easily beat Trump among the very youngest voters (18-24 year olds) —65% to 31%. The 34-point margin was the largest for any age group. According to the Harvard youth poll, that margin is now 14 points. This result surely left the Biden campaign feeling anxious.
Keep an eye on the youth vote, especially in the swing states. It may well determine the outcome of the election.
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