Chart of week May 12
Data from Monmouth University Over the last 10 years, attitudes toward climate change have changed. Several years ago, most people believed it was a very serious problem, and supported government action, but not today. Less than 50% of the public think it a very serious problem. The shift appears most evident among 18-34 year olds.…
Chart of week – May 5th
Different methodologies, different poll results.
Young voters prioritize Gaza War?
Be aware of the availability bias – its influence is widespread and can lead to poor political decisions.
The presidents as threats to democracy
Biden and Trump genuine threats to democracy?
Shifts among youth voters
Shifting preferences among young voters could be crucial to Biden’s reelection chances.
Does Trump Lead Biden?
Contrary to headlines, not much has changed in the presidential contest. It’s to close to call.
Charts ending 3/30/2024
Research from Deutsche Bank These two charts illustrate generations by date of birth and number of births. The last two presidents have come from the Silent Generation (Biden) and Baby Boomer Generation (Trump). Notice Generation Z represents the most births in a 15 year period. They already outnumber Baby Boomers (see below) and will catch…
Why are we so politically polarized?
The question is a common one. And it turns out, on most issues we are not polarized – including abortion.
Chart ending 3/23/2024
The chart below comes from an Axios article published last year. First, the chart answers the following question. Which party performs better (a larger margin of victory) in wealthy congressional districts versus less wealthy congressional districts? The horizontal axis shows the margin of victory in 2022 midterm congressional elections. Margins below zero represent Republican victories.…
Trump capitalizing on nostalgia about his time in office
Retrospective evaluations of past presidents are generally positive. To this point, the data show Trump is benefiting from people’s recall.
Chart of the week ending 3/16/2024
Black, Asian, and Latinos are better sorted – that is, they are matching their ideology to their vote choice/party ID. That means more members of these groups will vote for Republicans than in the past.
Again, the best politicians prevailed
Biden versus Trump. Yet polls show no one is happy. Many ask, “Is this the best the parties can do?” Yes, it is. While Biden and Trump are not universally loved, they have excelled in nomination politics and maintain a firm hold on supporters. Emotions aside, this is the standard for success in electoral politics.…
It stays, for now, because elected officials like it
Most people want to reform partisan gerrymandering. And, slowly, it appears that is happening. Why does it take so long?
Politics is for seniors
Politicians are getting older. Just how old and what does that mean for young voters.
Chart of the week ending 5/12/2023
Typically, the news media present comparisons of median household income between Whites and Blacks, or perhaps Whites and Hispanics. In general, racial comparisons dominate media coverage. While important, there are of course more than two groups that comprise our nation’s population. In fact, approximately 30% of the population is neither Black nor White. This chart,…
Promises Made, Promises Broken
Political compromises are an important feature of a well functioning political system. Our Constitution is in fact a series of compromises. But compromises require concessions and politicians often break promises in order to close the deal. This can be frustrating to voters but its crucial for agreements.
Strike three or ball four?
A ball or strike? Judges decide and they all possess ideological biases that determine the call.
Biden’s reelection campaign
Not many want him to run again, but Joe Biden will run again and like most incumbents will win the party’s nomination easily.
Independents or Partisan Leaners
Recent data show substantial increases in the share of people that identify as Independents. Is it real? Let’s take a look.
The Iron Law of Successive Elections
Will Democrats lose House seats? Of course, that’s never been in doubt. Read on and find out why a newly elected president nearly always loses House seats in midterm elections.
Elections: Engines of government power
We typically consider elections as accountability devices, the time when people can rebuke those in power and replace them with someone else. The people ultimately decide. Less understood, elections are important instruments of government power and authority. In fact the chief reason elections exist at all is because they benefit governments. This interpretation allows us…
Securing the right to vote – it’s not about protest, equity, and fairness. It’s about War.
Typically we think about the right to vote as something won – something gained through protest and persistent pressure on government. Turns out, that is only a small part of the story. This post details the rest of the story.
The bipartisan infrastructure bill – it’s not really bipartisan!
It’s been called bipartisan for months. It now law. But is it really bipartisan?
An Electoral Majority is not a Governing Majority
Our political system deliberately prevents electoral majorities from dominating government. Is this democracy?
What is Government?
What is government? The answer can clarify how we see political affairs.
The target is now unvaccinated Americans
Biden calls for mandates and blames the unvaccinated minority. Sharp rhetoric, bold actions but politically risky.
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