Different methodologies, different poll results.
Category Archives: elections
Young voters prioritize Gaza War?
Be aware of the availability bias – its influence is widespread and can lead to poor political decisions.
The presidents as threats to democracy
Biden and Trump genuine threats to democracy?
Shifts among youth voters
Shifting preferences among young voters could be crucial to Biden’s reelection chances.
Does Trump Lead Biden?
Contrary to headlines, not much has changed in the presidential contest. It’s to close to call.
Chart ending 3/23/2024
The chart below comes from an Axios article published last year. First, the chart answers the following question. Which party performs better (a larger margin of victory) in wealthy congressional districts versus less wealthy congressional districts? The horizontal axis shows the margin of victory in 2022 midterm congressional elections. Margins below zero represent Republican victories.Continue reading “Chart ending 3/23/2024”
Trump capitalizing on nostalgia about his time in office
Retrospective evaluations of past presidents are generally positive. To this point, the data show Trump is benefiting from people’s recall.
Chart of the week ending 3/16/2024
Black, Asian, and Latinos are better sorted – that is, they are matching their ideology to their vote choice/party ID. That means more members of these groups will vote for Republicans than in the past.
Again, the best politicians prevailed
Biden versus Trump. Yet polls show no one is happy. Many ask, “Is this the best the parties can do?” Yes, it is. While Biden and Trump are not universally loved, they have excelled in nomination politics and maintain a firm hold on supporters. Emotions aside, this is the standard for success in electoral politics.
It stays, for now, because elected officials like it
Most people want to reform partisan gerrymandering. And, slowly, it appears that is happening. Why does it take so long?
consider the politics 